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These years, air conditioning quality has made great progress, and the frequency of fluoride is not less and less, and the importance of refrigerant has gradually been neglected. However, in three months ago, the refrigerant suddenly rose, and he returned to the magnesium lamp.
Refrigerant, cool in summer is the public, warm in winter is the heart of the stock. Today, I will analyze a wave. What is the high level of the refrigerant's price station? How long does this round of warmth? If you have different perspectives, you are also welcome to discuss together.
I. How did the refrigerant are playing?
Just simple popularity, excellent performance of fluorine refrigerant is the most common type in the market. Refrigerant is mainly used in air conditioning, refrigerator, freezer and other products. Air conditioning is the big head of the refrigerant consumption, accounting for nearly 80%. In 1977, the British Towards discovered the ozone-like hollow hole in the Antarctic, and found that the fluorine refrigerant was one of the main reasons for destroying the ozone layer. After a long period of time, everyone began to talk about Fluorine. Until 10 years later, the International Convention "Montreal Protocol" has been put into the schedule, and my country is also one of Member States (my country's third-generation refrigerant in China accounts for 66 respectively. % And 35%, have an important role).
The upgrade here is, which is actually destroying the ozone layer and global warming is more friendly. At present, refrigerant products can be divided into four generations, one generation is more than one generation. Currently, my country's refrigerant market is in a replacement period of the third generation of second generation refrigerant products. The second generation refrigerant (main product is R22) has a 35% attenuation in 2013, and it will be completely stopped after 2030.
Therefore, the refrigerant manufacturer has throws the ship's votes of the second-generation refrigerant, and the Noah's Ark of the three generation refrigerants.
However, how many three generation refrigerants are produced (R32, R134a, R125 are the most important three products), but they can be counted. According to the requirements of the protocol, including China's developing countries, the reference quota (equivalent to setting up the highest production) is determined in 2020-2022. Since 2024, the production and consumption of the refrigerant is frozen. In 2029, the first step was implemented in the first step, and then it was reduced every five years, the phase-out cycle was 20 years. After elimination, the fourth generation refrigerant shineed. The requirements of developed countries will be more stringent. Image Source: "Montreal Protocol"
Although the quota policy of the refrigerant has not yet been introduced, it is expected that the average of the downstream use will become the main reference indicator of quotas, and the current three-generation refrigerant quota is too half.
The refrigerant can be said to have a certain marketization. Manufacturers are subject to the rules of the game and cannot be expanded unlimited. If you don't understand the above rules, please read it again, because it will affect your understanding of the manufacturers.
Second. During the decade, the refrigerant is straight to the clouds twice
With the history, you can be happy.
At the age of the second generation refrigerant, I once appeared in two rounds of sweet moments, like the first love and marriage.
The first love appeared in 2010-2011, the price increase is mainly the result of the supply and demand. In 2010, the country began to limit the mining and production of fluorite (one of the raw materials of refrigerant), but more importantly, the introduction of "home appliances to the countryside" industry policy (still remembering the home appliance donation is full of flying), greatly stimulate The needs of air conditioners and refrigerators. R22 once the price rushes to 28,000 yuan / ton, know that 2009 R22 price is about 10,000. After 2011, the R22 price was replaced before liberation with the high speed expansion of fluorochemical production capacity.
The first love is coming, and I have not been waiting for too long. The rise in the price of the second round of refrigerant is driven by the supply, and the map can be seen. In 2017, the country also realized that some industries had disorderly production capacity expansion, and the phenomenon of poor currency is expelled. In addition, the country is paying attention to environmental protection, and the high pollution, high-emissions, chemical companies don't know where to go , A large amount of hydrofluoric acid (one of the raw materials of refrigerant) Enterprises production, shutdown, industry reshuffle, hydrofluoric acid supply tension, which has also become the behind-the-scenes of the price of refrigerant rises.
This shows that some important industries, too much speculative industry leads to the development of the industry, and the policy is a shape, which can always pay a healthy market.
Third. Is there a play in the future refrigerant?
Ok, talk so much, go to the moment.
Just said, 2020-2022 is the period of the quota, what do players do to make their own quotas? It is necessary to open the horsepower, large-scale expansion, and release the new capacity of the refrigerant. If you change the price, you will seize the market share, you will compete for yourself for two years, the leading massage shares (600160) will implement this strategy The most thorough. At the same time, overlapping the new crown epidemic caused a decline in demand, the imbalance of supply and demand will make the refrigerant price fall. To put it bluntly, the players don't have to pay for money, and they can't stand it.
But three months ago, the price of refrigerant began to rise in the third time, why?
1. The quota base is over 2/3, and the top players have found that the cake can be robbed. The pattern is basically stable, and the redevelopment and price reduction are indeed not significant.
2. The impact of the country's dual-control policy and equipment maintenance, the refrigerant raw materials (such as hydrofluoric acid, dichloromethane) are low, supply tight, and the cost of refrigerant rises. Image Source: ifind
For more than three points above, the refrigerant should no longer price increase, and it is afraid that some of the funds of the refrigerant refrigerant manufacturers are only cold winter.
In the short term, there is no significant increase in demand (9 or October, air-conditioning production, sales off season). For a long time, according to BOC Securities forecast, my country's future air-conditioning demand is expected to grow at the number of digits. The domestic incremental space is not large. In the background of China's refrigerant, it may be a refrigerant. breaking point.
Standing in the moment, looking forward to the future. From basic analysis, double limits (limiting production) and dual-control (control high consumption, high emissions) policies continue to make a long time to become an important factor in the price of refrigerant prices. At least in the cold winter of Ranina, in order to ensure the supply of electricity, the policies will not lift it easily. Moreover, the production season of downstream air conditioners is generally in winter, and the demand side provides a certain support. In addition, when the new round of anti-dumping documents in the beautiful country landed, it also needs to continue to pay attention.
Therefore, the high shock or continuous rising, perhaps in this winter, the main tone of the refrigerant should have.
Industrial air conditioning, chemical fiber industrial air conditioning, chemical fiber industry refrigeration, textile industrial air conditioning, dust-free workshop cooling, ventilation pipeline, cooling tower, freezer and other air conditioning units and accessories.
Jiangsu Jincheng Air Conditioning Engineering Co., Ltd. is a comprehensive manufacturer of special air-conditioning equipment design, production, installation, and commissioning of clean room, electricity, tobacco, civil air defense engineering, medical clean room, clean room, electricity, tobacco, civil air defense engineering, medical clean room. Mainly produce JCZK combined air conditioning unit, cooling tower, glass steel ventilated galvanized sheet pipe, stainless steel pipe, polyurethane ventilation pipe and air conditioning accessories, Jincheng air conditioner is wide, the type, the unique model, superior performance, and user Favused.
